The 2025 FCS Playoff bracket is out and the games are set to kick off this weekend. There are some clear favorites, some possible spoilers, and a few teams that have hit a rut heading into the second season. I also provide some overall thoughts on the first few rounds, thoughts on some the FCS Playoff Committee decisions, whether playoff expansion should happen, and the Ivy League’s 10-game schedule.
The Favorite(s)
For the 2025 FCS Playoffs, there’s one clear favorite: North Dakota State. They’ve been the best team all season long and are deserving of the bullseye. However, Montana State looked very good in the second half of the season. They needed a bit of time to get going, but really put it together to become the second choice. I think it’s a clear top two in this year’s bracket, but I’m not ruling out the next three seeds from making noise. They don’t really fit into the spoiler or dark horse category, so we’ll designate them as the second tier.
Montana‘s lone loss was to Montana State and a repeat of that game in the second round and quarterfinals would set up a rematch in the semifinals. Tarleton State is the fourth seed and has shown some grit this season. The Texans were firing on all cylinders early, but suffered some injuries midway through the season. They’ve overcome those and managed to win all but the Abilene Christian matchup. I have some concerns about the defense over the last month and they’ve struggled against the run. Still, the Texans are a top team and the offense can compete with any team. Lehigh is the fifth seed and I think they have the right formula to make some noise. The strong running game and stingy rushing defense make the Mountain Hawks dangerous.
The Dark Horses
The first dark horse probably isn’t a surprise. I’m a fan of Mercer‘s offense with Braden Atkinson at the helm. They’ve looked like a completely different team and can score with any team in the bracket. The question is the defense, particularly stopping the pass. The possibility of a Mercer–Montana quarterfinal is quite tantalizing… but both teams have to win their second round matchups first.
My second dark horse is Abilene Christian. The Wildcats ended the season on a four-game win streak, which included Tarleton State. ACU also showed it can win close games on the road in the second half of the season. If the Wildcats get by the defensive-minded Lamar team in the first round, that sets up a rematch with Stephen F. Austin. ACU defeated SFA 28-20 in week two. The Montana State-SFA quadrant could have some really good games to watch.
The last dark horse is Tennessee Tech, which many felt was hard done by the Committee. The Golden Eagles are the 13th seed and will play at home against North Dakota. Should they get by UND, they’ll be at #4 Tarleton State. The teams that gave Tarleton the most fits this season were the ones that ran the ball well, and TTU has a top 20 rushing attack. We’ll see if Tennessee Tech can get by UND to set up the possibility of an exciting game versus Tarleton State. If not, it could be North Dakota’s rushing attack that gives the Texans a test.
Trending Down Entering the Playoffs
There are two teams that I think are trending the wrong way entering the playoffs and could see an early exit. The first team is Harvard, which is facing a crisis on defense. Against Columbia, Harvard allowed 193 yards to the Lions in the fourth quarter. It wasn’t a big deal because the game was 31-3 entering the fourth quarter, the defense relaxed a bit with the game out of hand, and some backups got playing time. Next up was Penn, which was able to put up 425 yards of offense and nearly shocked Harvard. That game should have thrown up some red flags, as the Crimson needed a walk-off field goal to escape. Last week, Yale moved up and down the field against Harvard while scoring at will. The Bulldogs posted 445 yards of offense, but Harvard never had an answer on defense.
The Crimson will be at Villanova in the first round and the Wildcats have been a solid defensive team this year. Ja’briel Mace is the one to watch for Villanova. He’s the go-to kick returner and has already housed two kicks this year. In November, he made a huge impact for the Wildcats, rushing for 524 yards and 6 touchdowns in the final three weeks. If he has a big game, it could be a very long day for Harvard.
The other team trending down is Lamar. I’ve said it all season long in the ballot write-ups that Lamar has a very small margin for error. They enter the playoffs with a 1-3 record in the last four games and haven’t scored 20+ points in any of them. The Lamar defense is very good, keeping them in just about every game this season, and it will need to be against Abilene Christian. Lamar’s offense will have to make a few plays against ACU to win this game.
Overall Bracket Thoughts
There are a lot of intriguing first round matchups. I have Harvard and Lamar trending down, but both of those teams have a good shot at winning. Even looking at the Central Connecticut–Rhode Island and Drake–South Dakota matchups, those could be decent games. Rhode Island is playing very well entering the playoffs, but CCSU has shown it can score when needed or grind out close games. Drake and USD will be a rematch of the 42-21 Coyotes win from September. There have been times when South Dakota’s offense has struggled and looked sluggish, like the Indiana State, Northern Iowa, and Illinois State games, where they failed to score more than 20 points. Drake will try to rely on its defense, while a slow start by USD’s offense will only give them confidence. Both CCSU and Drake will need some breaks to go their way to win, but I wouldn’t classify either team’s chances as impossible.
I think the possibilities in the second round are fascinating. #1 NDSU will welcome Illinois State in a rematch or #16 Southeastern Louisiana in the second round. Either Central Connecticut or #9 Rhode Island will make the cross-country trip to face #8 UC Davis. Harvard or #12 Villanova will stay within the region to play at #5 Lehigh. North Dakota or #13 Tennessee Tech will take on #4 Tarleton State. A road win by New Hampshire would see them play at #3 Montana; otherwise, it would be South Dakota State looking to play spoiler. A win by #11 South Dakota would see that defense matchup against the high-flying #6 Mercer offense. #7 Stephen F. Austin awaits the Lamar–Abilene Christian winner in an all-Texas battle. The Yale–Youngstown State winner faces an uphill battle at #2 Montana State, but imagine seeing Beau Brungard against the Bobcat defense or the Yale Bulldogs in Bobcat Stadium.
Throughout the first two rounds, there’s a good mix of regional and uncommon matchups. Those two factors, combined with a high level of remaining teams, make this year’s playoff bracket intriguing. While there are plenty of exciting possibilities, it doesn’t excuse some of the decisions made by the Committee this year…
FCS Playoff Committee Selections
I want to start by acknowledging that the selection process for any bracket is difficult. The FCS is especially challenging because the Committee prefers to avoid first round matchups while keeping travel in moderation where possible. Having said that, I don’t understand some decisions. Let’s begin with the at-large selections. For the most part, I can understand why the Committee made the selections they did. I personally would not have put in Lamar or North Dakota, but that is just a matter of subjectivity. The Committee valued wins against ranked opponents and the strength of schedule in these two cases. That’s the committee’s prerogative.
A notable absence as an at-large selection was Monmouth, which went 9-3 overall, but ended with a disastrous loss versus (at the time) 1-10 Albany at home. Monmouth had 9 FCS wins, with losses against Charlotte (FBS), New Hampshire (unranked, but a playoff team), and Albany (inexcusable). The Hawks also won against a ranked Villanova early in the season. The loss of quarterback Derek Robertson was obvious and hurt their chances. I personally had Monmouth dropping out of the top 25 after the Albany loss, but still making the playoffs. One could also ask why South Dakota State got a pass for losing 4 straight without its QB, while Monmouth was more heavily penalized. I know SDSU had the vastly superior overall resume, not to mention the strength of schedule difference and noticeable drop off without Robertson… But SDSU looked atrocious during the four-game losing streak without Chase Mason and had a terrible loss against Indiana State.
A contributing factor for Monmouth’s exclusion is that the CAA is hurting its own chances by having too many teams. The Committee even mentioned it during the Selection Show about the CAA not having all the teams face each other. When was the last time a 9-win CAA team failed to make the FCS playoffs? In 2024 when Delaware went 9-2, but was ineligible as part of its move to the FBS. The CAA has added a bunch of teams over the last several years, but it’s only diluted the brand, convoluted the scheduling process, and led to an outcome like this, where a 9-3 team missed the playoffs. It certainly doesn’t help that the CAA departures have historically been the better teams. The CAA will have 13 teams next season, as Sacred Heart joins, while Villanova and William & Mary depart.
Another issue I have is with the seeding. I’m not sure what led Tennessee Tech to fall from 7th to 13th in three weeks when its only loss was to Kentucky. Meanwhile, Mercer also went 2-1 with a loss to an SEC team, but moved from outside the top 10 to sixth. To be clear, I don’t mind Mercer being sixth, but TTU falling six spots for winning against FCS competition doesn’t make sense. Even if the Committee valued the strength of schedule, that doesn’t make a lot of sense because they should have penalized TTU on the first two in-season rankings with a weak non-conference slate. Did it come down to an eye test for TTU? If so, there’s a lack of consistency because UC Davis failed the eye test in the last month, but was still a top 8 seed. Lamar went 1-3 over the last four games with losses against a pair of 5-7 teams in Incarnate Word and McNeese.
Harvard going from 9th to the last four in doesn’t compute. Harvard lost only one game all season, which was against Yale in the season finale. Yale finished 8-2 and won the Ivy League, but Harvard dropped at least 12 spots for this single loss? Did the eye test also factor in here, but not elsewhere? I also thought UC Davis was over-ranked, especially when they didn’t look great over the last five games. Again, I suspect the SOS metric is doing a lot of the heavy lifting.
For all the transparency talk this season in the FCS, I think there should be more transparency out of the Committee. Tell the fans and schools why a team is seeded vs. unseeded. Why are teams being shuffled 10+ spots or left out of the bracket? It’s difficult to reconcile why some teams fall and some seem to defy their seed. A short five-minute segment on the selection show doesn’t really offer the insight, particularly when the questions talk more about the process than rankings.
After going through all this, I wanted to bring up a very realistic possibility by tying together some circumstantial pieces. Would Tennessee Tech have been left out of the FCS Playoffs had they not defeated UT Martin? We already established that TTU dropped from 7th to 13th in the three weeks after the second in-season playoff rankings. We know that Harvard was punished for losing to Yale by at least 10 spots and falling to the last four in. TTU didn’t have a top 25 win, had a weak SOS, and would hold 9 FCS wins in this scenario. You know who else had 9 FCS wins and was left out of the playoffs? Monmouth, which also had a win over a ranked opponent, while TTU didn’t have any ranked wins. Maybe it doesn’t play out exactly like that, but we can’t discount the possibility in this hypothetical scenario.
The last topic I want to address is the kickoff times. I’m not sure why all the first round games are scheduled to start at 12 local time. In 2024, two games kicked off at 12 PM ET, one at 1 PM, two at 2 PM, two at 3 PM, and one at 10:15 PM (Montana). In 2023, one game started at 1 PM ET, two at 2 PM, three at 3 PM, one at 3:30 PM, and one at 5 PM. Only one game took place outside the Eastern and Central time zones in 2023 and 2024. I don’t understand cramming all 8 games into a 4-hour window. Add this one to the false hopes of the Committee being more transparent on its decisions.
Thoughts on Playoff Expansion
The Ivy League is participating in FCS Playoffs for the first time in 2025 and I’ve seen some talk about a playoff expansion. I don’t have a strong opinion on expansion because I think the 24-team edition works well. However, I’m not opposed to expanding to 28 teams. I think the important question to ask about expansion is: why? Are we expanding for the sake of expanding, or is there a good reason?
I think there’s some validity if it allows schools outside the Big Sky and MVFC to reach the postseason, as long as they deserve to be in. Over the last three years, only 1 Big Sky or MVFC team was listed in the first four out (UC Davis in 2023). How many teams in the past few years have had a legitimate gripe about being left out? I’d say only Monmouth this year and maybe Stony Brook in 2024. If 2 or more teams were legitimately left out, then it would make sense to expand. For me, it hasn’t risen to that level on a consistent basis. I don’t want it to expand simply to placate the bubble teams because the only thing that will happen is the argument over the last four shifts from 25 through 28 to 29 through 32.
The other factor I’ll mention is money. FCS teams are already losing money in the playoffs, so adding four teams doesn’t solve that problem. I’d rather not see the FCS go down the private equity route either, but that’s not my call. If the FCS Playoffs end up in the hands of PE, they’ll be the ones calling the shots. If that solves the money issue and leads to expansion, that’s on the FCS membership.
Ivy League and the 10 Game Schedule
There have been discussions about the Ivy League’s 10-game schedule and how it impacted the FCS bubble race. The main crux of the debate is that having only 10 games gives the Ivy League an advantage because there are fewer games to lose. In addition, it may incentivize teams to avoid scheduling additional games because the Committee tacitly approves of the 10-game schedule by including at-large teams. After all, why would non-Ivy teams run the risk of adding a 12th game if the committee gives an advantage for the Ivy’s 10-game schedule?
On the contrary, there are fewer chances to score a marquee win for a team and the Ivy League. Furthermore, Ivy League teams also have a disadvantage in facing teams that have played multiple games before the Ivy teams even take the field. Sure, Ivy teams won’t have the same injury risk as other FCS teams, but they also aren’t “game-ready” in their first game.
Cornell (4-6) lost to Albany (2-10) in their first game this season. In 2024, Harvard (8-2) lost to Brown (3-7) in their second game, a result that cost them the outright title. In 2023, the same scenario happened to Yale (7-3) when it lost its second game to Cornell (3-7). The Ivy could try to mitigate this in future years by putting all conference games in the final seven weeks, but then they run the risk of losing non-conference games early, dragging down the SOS. None of this even scratches the surface of the contracts involved for non-conference games, along with other conferences and their conference matchups.
This is one of those debates where I see both sides. Harvard was one of the last four teams in, while Monmouth was one of the first four out. Even though we’ll never know, there’s a chance that Harvard and Monmouth were the 24th and 25th teams. Did the fact that Harvard played only 10 games help them compared to Monmouth, which played 12 games? Yeah, it’s possible. I’d also say the Committee made it clear that the Ivy League doesn’t have much of an advantage because it punished Harvard for a quality loss, sending them from 9th to the last four in. Whether the eye test or another qualitative factor played a part in Harvard’s drop is unknown, as the Committee doesn’t provide that insight.
I think this is something worth watching over the next few seasons. 2025 was the first season the Ivies could participate and the bubble/bracket fell into place for them to receive two bids. In other years, the Ivy League would have only one bid and left outside the bubble. It really does depend on how the bubble is year-to-year. This is another example of where additional transparency from the Committee would give everyone better insights into how teams were selected and ranked.
Photo Credit to North Dakota State University Athletics
